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February 01, 2008

Polls In Super Tuesday States Show McCain Ahead In Most

Posted in: '08 Election

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Polls In Super Tuesday States Show McCain Has It Made
Talking Points Memo
February 1, 2007

Yesterday we brought you a roundup of Super Tuesday polls for the Democratic primaries. Today, we bring you the same for the Republicans.

The bottom line: McCain has it made. He leads in nearly every state, with Romney only having clear advantages in Massachusetts, Colorado and of course Utah. Huckabee runs well in some Southern states, but even then he’ll probably lose a bunch to McCain. Compounding the trend for McCain, Rudy’s former support will probably go almost entirely to him.

A complication: Republican primaries don’t use uniform rules of delegate apportionment, like the Democrats do. Quite a few contests are winner-take-all, but many others are not. They do not use a proportional system, but instead distribute delegates by district (usually the same as House districts) and then accord all the district’s delegates to the plurality winner.

What does that mean for the race? The Northeast — where McCain is strongest — is mostly winner-take-all. And where Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee do manage some strength, it’s often in states that distribute delegates either by district or even proportionally, meaning that the map alone gives McCain a big advantage.

In short, expect McCain to rack up a lot of delegates on Tuesday. He won’t clinch the nomination outright, but he may build up an advantage so large that his nomination becomes a foregone conclusion…..

Key Super Tuesday States Highlighted

Arizona — McCain Way Ahead: McCain will easily win his home state’s winner-take-all primary. Total Delegates: 50, WTA.

California — McCain Ahead: Recent poll has given McCain leads of around ten points, though the most recent one shows the race against MItt Romney to be a bit tighter. However, McCain should get a huge boost from the support of Arnold Schwarzenegger as well as Rudy Giuliani, who himself had been previously running strong here. Total Delegates: 170, by district.

Colorado — Romney Way Ahead: The most recent poll shows Romney ahead of McCain by 19 points. This makes sense in the context of right-wing opposition to McCain on immigration — after all, this state is the land of Tancredo. Total Delegates: 43, proportional.

Illinois — McCain Narrowly Ahead: John McCain has taken a single-digit lead in recent polls here, aided by a combination of his momentum and the support of such prominent Illinois politicians as former Gov. Jim Edgar. Former Speaker Dennis Hastert, a longtime McCain antagonist, is aggressively backing Romney. One variable: The special election primary in Hastert’s district may cause higher turnout relative to the rest of the state. Total Delegates: 67, by district.

Massachusetts — Romney Way Ahead: — Mitt Romney should have no trouble winning a strong majority in his home state. But there’s one problem for Mitt: The primary here is proportional, not winner-take-all. Thus John McCain will get some delegates in Massachusetts, while Romney won’t get any from Arizona to balance it out. Total Delegates: 40, proportional.

New York — McCain Way Ahead: McCain was ahead of Romney 2-1 even before Rudy Giuliani dropped out, and Rudy’s support has boosted him to a lead of nearly 35 points. The state Republican committee has also come in line, switching its endorsement from Rudy to McCain. Total Delegates: 98, WTA.

All Super Tuesday states click here.

Snapshot Of Most Recent Poll In Each State

Alabama Hucakbee 27%, McCain 27%, Romney 15% …Jan 25
Alaska No recent polls
Arizona McCain 40%, Romney 23%, Huckabee 9%… Jan 26
Arkansas No recent polls
California McCain 32%, Romney 28%, Giuliani 14%… Jan 30
Colorado Romney 43%, McCain 24%, Huckabee 17% … Jan 27
Connecticut McCain 54%, Romney 31% … Feb 1
Delaware No recent polls
Georgia Romney 32%, McCain 31%, Huckabee 24% … Jan 31
Illinois McCain 34%, Romney 26%, Huckabee 16% … Jan 31
Massachusetts Romney 57%, McCain 34% … Jan 31
Minnesota McCain 41%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 17% … Jan 31
Missouri McCain 34%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 28% … Feb 1
New Jersey McCain 48%, Romney 25% … Jan 31
New York McCain 55%, Romney 21% … Feb 1
North Dakota No recent polls
Oklahoma McCain 37%, Huckabee 28%, Romney 19% … Jan 28
Tennessee Huckabee 30%, McCain 26%, Romney 22% … Jan 29
Utah Romney 78% … Jan 10

To read entire article click here.

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